We estimate the size of the student accommodation shortfall in the UK as c. 70,600 beds Over the years, a number of estimates have been made of this figure A HEPI article from November 2024, ‘ Student Accommodation after 2024 and the Need for Strategic Realignment ’, set out to “cut through some of the developer-led spin” for future demand. HEPI quoted some of the large property firms, who estimated between 234,000 and 620,000 additional beds would be needed by 2029, the year that the Office of National Statistics predicts a peak population of 15-19-year-olds. The market has had a tendency to proclaim large estimates of never-ending growth. The shocks to the market in 2025, by way of reduced numbers of international students, increased numbers of home commuter students, reduced occupancy in some markets, and wildly fluctuating rents, have spelt the end of this familiar narrative. We attempt our own estimate here, which we do not claim as definitive (because of the ‘unknowns’ that we describe as we explain our methodology) but is nevertheless a useful restrained counterpoint to these more exuberant estimates. We believe the UK-wide shortfall is closer to c. 70,600 beds. There are many student housing markets in the UK: some we would consider under-supplied, some balanced, and some saturated. To bring some objectivity to gauge where each sits, we have looked at two potential measures: one is a student-to-bed ratio, and the other is rental growth. We detail our methodology in Note iii in the Appendix. Several elements are adding uncertainty to this picture of demand The Renters Rights Act 2025 may impact the supply of student HMOs across the country, although we are yet to be convinced that it will cause a major swing from letting to students to young professionals. It is more likely that it will be dictated by the demand in each micro-location. Recruitment for the 2025/26 academic year appears to be somewhat polarised across providers, with different types of universities appearing to outperform others depending on the cohort involved. There have been some clear ‘winners and losers’ in recruitment across the sector, with large Russell Group clients tending to fare better despite challenges around international PGT cohorts. There has been an increasing shift towards commuting students , with many universities experiencing a drop in accommodation demand, despite strong overall student numbers. SFG has explored this through research undertaken in partnership with CUBO. There has been a clear increase over the last three years. While much of this can be attributed to the increased cost of living, there were some notable outliers, which had seen similar increases in commuting students despite being located in cities with very affordable rents. A Student First Group research report | April 2026 | Page 23