Note vi (to page 26) The Office for National Statistics (ONS) forecasts a 9.1% increase in 15-19-year-olds between 2023/24 and 2029/30. To apply this to our analysis requires some significant assumptions about future trends: We consider these to be conservative, cautious figures. Nevertheless, if viability challenges persist, even these targets may not be met. That aside, we would expect any combination of these unpredictable factors to increase demand beyond these figures: • the proportion of 18-year-olds that go to university increases; • international students increase; or • the Renters’ Rights Act 2025 significantly reduces the supply of HMOs available to students. At the same time, other unpredictable factors may act to reduce the demand: • alternative accommodation options for students (e.g. private rented, co-living) continue to grow; • the trend of increasing commuter students continues and more remain with their parents, friends or extended family; or • university delivery models emerge that require a different attendance pattern (e.g. three intensive weeks on campus per semester and the rest distance learning). Page 50 | SFG | Meeting demand for modernised university-owned accommodation