Methodology for estimating the size of the student accommodation shortfall in the UK Note iv (to page 24) First, we considered how many beds are required purely for latent demand, i.e. ignoring forecast growth. Excluding London (which is so large and peculiar as to warrant being considered separately), this generates a need for a further c. 49,000 beds. There are c. 646,000 existing operational beds outside of London so this would represent a 7.6% increase. To illustrate the sensitivity of this analysis (because 1.9 : 1 is only an assumption), a target ratio of 2.0 : 1 reduces this figure to 37,000, and a ratio of 1.8 : 1 increases it to 66,000. A more precise estimate for London would be an intricate and challenging piece of work in its own right. Using the methodology above, the student-to- bed ratio for London is 1.8 : 1, which seems fairly balanced compared to other markets, but this would be to ignore the scale of the city, the large numbers of Londoners that commute to London universities, and the disproportionate attraction the capital has for international students. For the purposes of this analysis, we have adopted the Greater London Authority’s estimate (made in 2018) that London needs 3,500 new beds per year, to reach 170,000 in total by 2041/42. Working backwards, this would require 114,000 beds in 2025: London currently has c. 105,500, which generates a total current need for a further c. 8,500. This may be conservative, but it has the benefit of aligning with policy. Note v (to page 25) The Office for National Statistics (ONS) forecasts a 4.3% increase in 15-19-year-olds between 2025/26 and 2029/30. To apply this to our analysis requires some significant assumptions about future trends: • the proportion of 18-year-olds that go to university remains constant; • the trend of commuter students does not increase beyond its 2025/26 level; • international students coming to the UK remain flat over that period; • 90% of international students are in the demand pool, with the remaining 10% living with friends or extended family; and • the Renters’ Rights Act 2025 does not significantly alter the balance of supply between PBSA and HMOs. It seems unlikely that all of these factors will stay still, but if they do, or if their effects cancel each other out, then the impact of the ‘demographic bulge’ could generate demand for a further c. 18,500 beds. Our estimate includes another four years of London growth (14,000 beds), plus nearly 5,000 beds in the rest of the UK. We assume that the non-London growth is spread evenly across the whole of the UK, so that the currently under-supplied markets need to grow further, while the saturated markets can absorb this growth without further development. There is, of course, a possibility that the saturated markets (by having the edge on affordability) will be able to absorb more growth than the currently under- supplied markets, but this is another ‘unknown’ that cannot be predicted. A Student First Group research report | April 2026 | Page 49