Demand in 2029/30 To refine this analysis further, we should then take into account forecast population growth, as the demographic bulge at the end of this decade is coming, followed by a demographic dip during the 2030s. We detail our methodology in Note v in the Appendix. The analysis is more speculative as it requires some significant assumptions about future trends, but assuming that their effects balance each other out, then the impact of the ‘demographic bulge’ could generate demand for a further c. 20,100 beds. This means that the total number of additional beds required in the UK by 2029/30 would increase from c. 50,500 to c. 70,600. Demand in 2039/40 We have not modelled beyond 2029/30, but we do need to be mindful of what might happen beyond then: after all, we are considering investment in assets with a design life of 50+ years. ONS tells us that the population of 15-19-year-olds will then begin to shrink: by 2039/40 it will be 14.8% smaller than the peak of 2029/30. However, we are not implying that some of those 70,600 beds should not be built: first, because without a magic wand it is unlikely that all of them will be, and second, because there is a need to replace ageing stock. A Student First Group research report | April 2026 | Page 25